谷歌的远水解不了百度的近渴

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要是你最大的竞争对手看起来肯定会撤出你已经占有绝对优势的市场，那绝对是好消息。

When your biggest rival looks set to lee a market you already dominate, it must be good news.

中国最主要的互联网搜索引擎百度的投资者似乎就是这么想的：自谷歌声称不愿再接受中国政府对于搜索结果的审查、考虑撤出中国以来，百度股价一周内跃升21.5%。

Investors in Baidu, China's leading inter search engine certainly seem to think so: its shares he jumped 21.5% in the week since Google said it's considering leing China, no longer willing to accept Beijing's strictures on search results.

事实上，即使谷歌退得正是时候，百度本身也出现了很多问题，足以表明投资者对其前景的热心有点过头了。

In fact, Baidu's seeing enough problems of its own to suggest investors' ebullience about its prospects is overdone, even if Google's potential retreat es at an opportune moment.

百度在这个月已经损失了两位高管，最新一位是其首席技术官。而这正值百度因广告系统更换而面临困境之际，百度已经预测，其广告系统将导致第四季度收入较前一季度增幅减少10个百分点。

Already this month, the pany has lost two senior executives, the latest being its chief technology officer. This as Baidu struggles with a change to its advertising system which, it has already forecast, will see it lee ten percentage points of potential revenue growth on the table, in the fourth quarter from the previous three months.

随着谷歌攻城掠地，百度在中国搜索引擎市场的份额也不断下滑。研究公司易观国际预计百度2009年第四季度收入占市场58.4%的份额，依然堪称强劲，但却是百度两年半以来最低的份额。

Its share of the Inter search engine market in China has been in decline too, as Google made ground. Baidu's share of market revenues fell to 58.4% in the last quarter of 2009, research firm Analysys estimates: still strong, but Baidu's lowest share for two and a half years.

当然，一旦谷歌撤出中国，这些担忧都将烟消云散。即便认为百度不会攫取谷歌全部市场份额的人也预期此事将对百度产生积极效应。瑞信预计，百度只能获得谷歌所损失收入的三分之一，这样一来百度的市场份额将接近70%，在拥有近4亿网民的中国，如此地位令人称羡。

Certainly, all of these worries could be offset by Google's departure from China. Even those who don't expect Baidu to gain all of Google's market share expect a positive impact. Credit Suisse says Baidu may only take a third of Google's lost revenues -- but that would put its market share near 70%, an enviable position in a country now boasting nearly 400 million inter users.

然而百度当前的股票预期市盈率高达70倍有余，为上年同期的三倍，因此当前并不是买进该股的最好时机，尤其是考虑到短期内可能还会有更多负面消息出炉。

But with its shares already trading at over 70 times expected earnings -- three times the valuation seen a year ago -- there certainly will be better times to buy into Baidu, especially given the potential for more negative news in the short-term.

举例来说，百度广告销售方面的问题就可能为该公司2010年第一季度收益前景蒙上阴影。另外别忘了，谷歌事件也需要一些时间才能明朗化。

The problems with Baidu's advertising sales, for example, are likely to cloud the earnings outlook in 2010's first quarter. Nor should it be fotten that the Google situation will take some time to reach a clear resolution.

还有一种可能是，百度当前的问题或许是暂时的，最终它将成为谷歌事件的最大受益者。但在中国互联网行业，现在是一切皆不好说。

It may be the case that Baidu's current problems prove temporary, leing it the main beneficiary of the Google fallout. But in the Chinese Inter scene, nothing's a given right now.